This paper examines the relationship between social assistance, violent conflict, and intersecting crises, and considers how social assistance can help offset erosive forms of coping that could otherwise drive poverty and food insecurity. To investigate these issues, the study draws on newly collected household data covering 1,000 survey respondents in 2023 from the Konduga and Maiduguri Municipal Council local government areas in Borno, Nigeria. Borno has been an epicentre for violence over the past 15 years, and has experienced a range of intersecting crises.

Study findings indicate that 43 per cent of households experienced disruptions to income or agriculture, or asset loss, either due to conflict, flooding, or drought. Of these households, 41 per cent reported that more than half of their income source was lost. Despite the negative effects of crises, only 1 in 10 households received social assistance in the year preceding the survey, mainly through non-governmental organisations. This indicates that social assistance is simply not getting through to the people who need it. Perhaps as a result, households are increasingly drawing on negative and even erosive forms of coping – for example, by being less able to save, less able to make investments, and increasing reliance on loans that together could drive downward mobility. The paper concludes with broad-brush implications for social assistance programmes to become more effective amidst violence and climate-related disasters

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The recent Nigerian capital importation report by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) revealed that the total value of capital importation stood at $2.6 billion in Q2 2024, indicating a 22.85% decline from the $3.4 billion recorded in the previous quarter. By type, portfolio investments recorded the highest value at $1.4 billion, accounting for 53.93% of the total, while other investments stood at $1.2 billion (44.92%). Foreign direct investments (FDI) recorded the least volume at $29.8 million, accounting for about 1.2% of the total capital importation in Q2 2024. Sector-wise, the banking sector saw the highest inflow, with US$1.1 billion (43.15%), followed by the production/manufacturing sector at US$624.7 million (23.99%) and the trading sector at US$569.2million (21.86%). Additionally, the report revealed that the highest capital importation came from the United Kingdom, accounting for 43.01% of the total, valued at US$1,120.15 million, followed by the Netherlands at 22.19% (US$577.82 million) and South Africa at 9.83% (US$255.98 million). FDI, which contributed the least, recorded a 74.97% decrease quarter-on-quarter,driven by macroeconomic uncertainty characterised by high inflation rate and exchange rate volatility. Persistent insecurity and fragile business environments leading to a decline in investors’ confidence might have contributed to the decline in FDI. To reverse this trend, the government must develop policies that promote macroeconomic stability, ensure forex liquidity, and create favourable business environments.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the average cost of a healthy diet (CoHD) for August 2024 was N1,255 per adult per day, a 0.8% decrease from N1,265 in the previous month. CoHD is the most costeffective combination of locally accessible commodities that meet worldwide food-based dietary requirements, suggesting that the average Nigerian spends N1,255 per day to maintain a healthy diet. At the regional level, CoHD was highest in the Southwest at N1,554 per adult per day, followed by the South-South at N1,381 per adult per day and the lowest in the Northwest at N1,014. However, the CoHD increased by 28% in August when compared with N982 reported in March this year. The slight decline in CoHD could be attributed to several factors including the decrease in food inflation to 37.52% in August. Nonetheless, more than 31.8 million Nigerians are facing acute food insecurity, which is worsened by malnutrition among women and children. Acute food insecurity worsens poverty, reduces food availability and slows economic activity. The prevailing acute food insecurity is attributed to the high rate of insecurity across the country, particularly in the Northern region of the country. Tackling this requires urgent response from the government. Thus, the government should strengthen security while also providing farmers with agricultural support programs, particularly subsidising the agricultural inputs in order to foster agricultural production and hence, alleviating food insecurity which in turn would reduce the costs of a healthy diet.

The National Bureau of Statistics' (NBS) Selected Food Price Watch for August 2024 revealed a significant increase in food prices, indicating a decline in the average Nigerian's welfare. The price of 1 kg of locally produced brown beans increased by 5.31% month-on-month (MoM) from N2,444 in July 2024 to N2,574. Likewise, the price of 12-medium-sized agricultural eggs rose by 5.48% MoM, from N2,170 in July to N2,289 in August. A notable price increase was also recorded in 1 kg of local rice, which rose by 3.65% MoM to N1,831 in August 2024. State-wise, Akwa Ibom recorded the highest price for beans at N3,276, while Adamawa recorded the lowest price at N1,710 per kg. Jigawa State recorded the lowest price of N1,786 for agricultural eggs, while Niger State recorded the highest price at N2,996. These price increases can be attributed to rising transportation costs, instability in the exchange rate of the Naira, and insecurity on farmlands in the country. The continued rise in food prices could have severe consequences for Nigerians' welfare and economic growth. Rising food prices disproportionately affect low-income households, leading to reduced purchasing power, increased food insecurity and malnutrition, and widening inequality. The government must implement policies to improve agricultural productivity in the long run. These should include subsidies for agro-allied industries, increased investment in agricultural infrastructure and reduced tariffs on essential food products. Unemployment rises to 5.3% in Q1 2024

According to the National Bureau of Statistics' (NBS) Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Inflation Report for August, headline inflation fell for the second consecutive month in 2024 to 32.15%. This is a 1.25 percentage point decline from 33.40% month-to-month in July. However, on a year-over-year basis, the inflation rate rose by 6.35 percentage points, compared to 25.80% in August 2023. Similarly, food inflation fell to 37.52%, a 2.01 percentage point decline from 39.53% month-to-month in July but an 8.18 percentage point increase from 29.3% year-on-year in August 2023. The decrease in food inflation can be attributed to lower average costs for products like yam, cassava, and groundnut oil, which resulted from continued agricultural output. On the other hand, rise in year-on-year food inflation could be linked to seasonal variables and an increase in the average costs of identical commodities. While the current decline in inflation is a pos itive development for the economy, a long-term solution is needed to further reduce inflation. Specifically, since the current decline in inflation is primarily driven by agricultural production, the government should increase agricultural production by making significant investments in the agricultural sector, particularly in modern farming techniques, storage facilities, irrigation systems, and rural area infrastructure. This will ensure the year-round supply of food items. Also, the government should stabilize other factors that are driving up inflation, such as exchange rate instability, the energy crisis, and fiscal policy indiscipline

The unemployment rate rose to 5.3% in Q1 2024, up from 5.0% in the previous quarter, while youth unemployment slightly decreased to 8.0%. The labour force participation rate dropped to 77.3% from 79.5%, this was followed by a fall in the employment-to-population ratio to 73.2%. Informal employment remained relatively steady at 92.7%, with the share of self-employed workers dipping to 84%. Urban unemployment increased to 6.5%, and rural unemployment remained at 4.3%

According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Nigeria's total goods trade stood at ₦31,892.46 billion in Q2 2024, down 3.76% from the previous quarter but up 150.39% from the number reported in Q2 2023. Exports accounted for 60.89% of overall trade, worth ₦19,418.93 billion. Nigeria's export trade was dominated by crude oil (₦14,559.56 billion), accounting for 74.98% of total trade, followed by agricultural goods (₦973.69 billion), raw materials (₦366.91 billion), solid minerals (₦58.56 billion) and manufactured goods (₦480.82 billion). Total imports accounted for 39.11% of total commerce in Q2 2024, totaling ₦12,473.53 billion, a 10.71% decline from Q1 2024. Mineral fuels were the most popular import category, followed by machinery and transportation equipment, chemicals, and allied items, which accounted for 35.40%, 23.08% and 15.12% of total imports respectively. While a decrease in imports may help reduce trade deficits and highlight Nigeria's improving export strength relative to import demand, it also implies slower economic activity or limited access to vital imports such as machinery and transportation equipment. Furthermore, Nigeria's strong reliance on oil exports, which account for nearly 75% of total commerce, indicates that the country's trade performance is extremely vulnerable to global oil price swings, and demand changes. The government must devote its attention to diversification policies that will improve the contribution of non-oil sectors to Nigeria's export base such as agriculture, raw materials, solid minerals and manufactured goods to promote economic stability and resilience to external shocks. 

The naira rebounded against the U.S. dollar, gaining significant value this week, closing at N1,593.32/$1 in the official market.3 This improvement is linked to the recent settlement of a $500 million domestic dollar bond, which was fully subscribed by investors. The move injected confidence into the market and provided a brief cushion for the currency. On September 6, 2024, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) took additional steps to ease pressure on the naira by approving the sale of $20,000 to each Bureau de Change (BDC) operator at a rate of N1580/$1. To stabilise exchange rates and meet the growing demand for invisible transactions, the CBN instructed the operators to maintain a margin of no more than 1%. This intervention comes after months of currency volatility that have put the naira under immense pressure, and by increasing liquidity in the market, the CBN aims to close the gap between official and parallel market rates, which has widened in recent weeks. This, if sustained, could temporarily boost the naira’s value and bring more stability to the foreign exchange market. However, to sustain the positive momentum and strengthen the naira over time, the government needs to implement a more holistic approach that goes beyond periodic interventions. Additionally, the government should intensify its efforts to attract foreign investment by fostering an enabling business environment with policies that promote stability, transparency and growth.

In Africa, where gender inequality remains a big problem, addressing gender-based socio-economic vulnerability should be a priority to enhance the resilience of women (and the society) as countries deal with the multitude of crises facing the world. Building on the work by the South African Institute of International Affairs which demonstrated that the lack of gender inclusivity was the biggest factor responsible for the high socio-economic vulnerabilities faced by African countries during the COVID-19 pandemic, this policy brief seeks to enhance the understanding of the intersectionality of gender and poverty and how it can contribute to socio-economic vulnerability especially during crises. It further proposes ways in which these vulnerabilities can be addressed through gender inclusive policies. To achieve these goals, the brief analyses the key factors that drive gender-based socio-economic vulnerabilities in countries across Africa and make recommendations on how these can be improved to minimize such vulnerabilities.